Data time again. We’ve lost a few times recently, and against key playoff rivals no less. That has been mildly concerning so I thought I’d check the percentiles and see if I liked the way they were looking at me.
With Norwich, Preston and WBA all nabbing three points in recent weeks, I’ve started to worry. That’s unusual for me – I’ve basically had us marked as a superior Championship team for the last 3 years. Losing games has become a rare-ish event so I don’t necessarily mind that it’s happened (we’re probably due) but we do seem to be having a particularly hard time against those in the top half. When you’re aiming for the playoffs, losing to fellow playoff contenders is the least ideal thing you can do because of the doubly punishing effect it has on your position.
Obviously the top half / bottom half divide is a transient thing, but I still want to believe that we’re true playoff candidates, so if we are, doesn’t that mean we should be capable of beating some of the teams around us? Or is the fact that we’ve struggled against these teams a sign that things might be catching up with us?
With all this in mind I ran the numbers and rustled up a graphic for you. I should note one thing about this current data visualisation kick I’m on: the point of this exercise isn’t to offer definitive analysis or answers, it’s simply to provide the visual. I just want to find the data I’m after and share it in a way that can be properly absorbed and understood.
So, regarding this specific query, unsurprisingly the hunch was right. We haven’t taken enough points against the better sides in the league this season. That is patently clear. It’s just 12 points so far from a possible 48, with seven of those coming against Sunderland and Leicester.
Conversely, we’ve been positively dominant against the current bottom 12, taking 39 points from a possible 57.
So the good news is we can be reasonably confident that we’re superior to a good chunk of the league.
However, it really is worth noting that we still the reverse fixture left to play for a lot of the top teams, with four of those games coming at home. This could all still change, and if our many years of watching football should tell us by this point, it’s incredibly likely that it will.
The visualisation is below. If you go full screen you can interactive a little bit with it, but it doesn’t need too much interpretation to be fair.
Naturally this is very changeable information so I will be updating it regularly to ensure it has a shelf life of more than one day.
There seems to be an issue with Canva/Flourish at the moment which is causing an issue with the embed. If you’re struggling to view the image, here’s the direct link. And if there’s still a problem, blame them.
